United States in Latin America: Reset Relations?

Washington left everyone astounded by sending a delegation for talks with Maduro’s government. This visit, as well as others to Central America, seems to foretell an urgent reorganization in the region, driven by the world crisis.

Estados Unidos en Latam
Ilustration by Erick Retana

By Leonardo Oliva

In September 2021 Joe Biden only had eyes for Afghanistan, after twenty years in the country, US troops were exiting through the backdoor. Forced to a hasty evacuation after a surprising and successful offensive against the Taliban, the President of the United States set his sight further away from Latin America, setting a trend in Washington’s foreign policy which had gotten deeper since the Trump administration, even before. Only six months after leaving Kabul, Russian bombings in the Ukraine have forced Biden to look back at our region and —some say— take away allies from Vladimir Putin. If this means embracing dictators, so be it, as it has always been for the pragmatic American diplomacy.

Suddenly, an emerging global energy crisis resulting from sanctions to Russia (second world producer of oil and gas), plus the geopolitical reorganization stirred up by the war in Eastern Europe, compelled the White House to reset its relationship with Latin America. That was the opinion of Juan Gonzalez in an interview with Americas Quarterly; Gonzales is a top security advisor for the Western Hemisphere and  one of Biden’s closest in terms of foreign policy. He was one of the three top Washington officials who traveled to Caracas to meet with Nicolas Maduro on March 7th, in a conclave that marked a restart for both government’s relations, which had been halted since 2019.

The summit was surrounded by mystery, with both sides strictly limited to succinct statements. The next day showed a quick consequence: the release of two Americans who were detained by Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, a gesture of relaxation of tensions after years of verbal and diplomatic duels between both countries. A week later, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, stated that had been the only motivation of the meeting and denied any negotiations of reducing sanctions in exchange for oil. 

It was not the only signal that the United States sent Latin America since Putin crossed the Rubicon, shattering world peace. All of a sudden, Washington’s agenda was full of activities south of the Rio Grande. On March 3rd, in another inconsequential meeting, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, welcomed his peers from Costa Rica (Rodolfo Solano Quiros), the Dominican Republic (Roberto Alvarez) and Panama (Erika Mouynes). He did it to support the movement Alianza por el Desarrollo en Democracia, of which they are members, in the scenario of a Central America that is convulsed by authoritarianism in countries that end up being the pawns of autocracies such as Russia and China. It is as if Washington had recently discovered that these great powers have been making silent progress in its ‘back yard’, both economically and politically, in front of its unaffected view. 

Colombia, one of the most unfaltering allies of the United States in the region, is also part of this new stage of relations. Its president, Ivan Duque, had been given the cold shoulder by Biden’s White House after flirting with Trump’s reelection. What is worse, was disoriented following the summit with Maduro. But in that same week, the American President met with Duque in the White House, albeit when he is about to finish his term and while Colombians are presumably inclined to choose Gustavo Petro, a leftist, to succeed him.

For now, this rekindled approach towards Venezuela does not include the other two declared enemies of the United States in Latin America: Castroist Cuba and Sandinista Nicaragua. Although there was a wink at Cuba: Biden is assessing an increase in staff at the embassy in Havana, which had been reduced to a minimum by the Trump administration, as the White house press secretary revealed a few days ago. But there are no gestures aimed at Ortega: the Caribbean dictator who has no oil, unlike Maduro, seems to be more and more isolated. A stance to which he unapologetically contributes, such as when he greeted the chairman of the State Duma while Moscow’s tanks mercilessly invaded Ukraine. 

International analysts agree that Washington’s new strategy is “pure pragmatism,” as defined by Juan Negri, director of the bachelor programs of international studies and political science at Universidad Di Tella de Argentina: “The geopolitical results of Eastern Europe’s conflict are evident for both parties. It is clear that for the United States, this has to do with the need to avoid an energy crisis in their country. Whereas it is advantageous for Venezuela to sell them their oil, it is a very important market.”

In the middle of the bloodshed in Ukraine, which threatens with another World War and is leaving its mark in western households, other two analysts consulted addressed the effects of the bilateral meeting that took place in Caracas. Michael Shifter, president of the NGO Inter-American Dialogue (based in Washington) doubts that Biden has authentic interest in our region: “I don’t perceive a lot of enthusiasm from the US to get closer to Latin America. It is more distracted than ever.” But he does notice a change regarding Venezuela: “As an oil country, it represents an opportunity to offset the ban to import Russian oil to the United States.” He added that Biden’s administration is also focused on supporting a dialogue between chavismo and the Venezuelan opposition, cut short last October. And on breaking away from his predecessor’s strategy: “There is an explicit rejection of Trump’s politics, which erroneously expected Maduro’s regime to collapse. They (the Democrats) are convinced that Venezuela needs a negotiation in order to overcome the crisis.”

For its part, Venezuelan Felix Arellano prefers to talk about a “spin” instead of a “180-degree change” in Washington’s approach to Latin America. “It is said that Miraflores prompted the meeting and responded properly with the fulfillment of part of the commitments (releasing the two detainees,)” commented the PhD in political sciences from Universidad Central de Venezuela. He, obviously, does not foresee an immediate divorce between Maduro and Russia: “Miraflores has played its game very well, they are multipolar. It all starts with communications with Washington, a likely approach, but this is not a honeymoon. Sanctions will not be removed overnight.”

The real extent of the approach between Washington and Caracas will reveal itself with the extension of the war in Ukraine. But beyond that, it is necessary to admit that the world’s geopolitical outlook changed on February 24th, the ghosts of the Cold War are now more visible than ever. They bring upon memories of policies such as the Alliance for Progress, implemented in the sixties by John F. Kennedy – also a Democrat- to give billions of dollars to Latin American countries as an antidote to the Cuban revolution and the Soviet threat. 

Clearly today’s context is different. The pandemic compelled the US Treasury to rescue its own citizens and no one believes Biden could relaunch an economic program such as that one. Moreover with a war that jeopardizes global stability. Thus, luring the wayward Latin American governments seems more difficult than ever. As Juan Negri says, “The United States is in no condition to make offers, this is more symbolic.” Consequently, the Summit of the Americas is highlighted in the American President’s agenda; scheduled for next June, the US President will host its peers and introduce topics including “economic prosperity, safety, human rights and dignity.” 

The Summit, set to be in Los Angeles, is less than three months away. It is not a lot of time for Washington to change the geopolitical value it has allocated to Latin America in the 21st century. And it is a lot of time for the speed at which the events are unraveling since Putin decided to break a seemingly untouchable world order. By the time of the Summit, it will be hard to predict the destiny of our region, tugged by the interests of powers reviving the Cold War but without any benefits at sight this time around.

Artículos relacionadosMás del autor

DEJA UNA RESPUESTA

Por favor ingrese su comentario!
Por favor ingrese su nombre aquí