Trump’s re-election at the expense of Latin America

Illegal immigration, violence and drug trafficking, with these electoral flags the US president starts his campaign to remain in power. Now his strategy seeks to include the problems of Latin America in the upcoming electoral debate.

Imagen: Twitter @realDonaldTrump

The photo that heads the Twitter account of President Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump shows much about his current relationships with his closest neighbor to the south, and with his own electorate. In this picture you can see the tycoon and leader of the world power in a rally in El Paso, Texas, looking haughtily at dozens of his followers. Some hold blue banners with the message “Build the wall”. Many others raise red banners that read “Finish the wall”.

This event took place during the same week of February in which Trump announced the declaration of a national emergency. Going this path, somehow desperate for many analysts and opponents, he seeks to obtain  the necessary funds for the expansion of the border wall with Mexico, alleging a crisis of illegal immigration and entry of drugs into his country.

This decision, added to statements that the republican has reinforced repeatedly, with the aim of generating in his country the impression of a social and political climate of constant threat due to migration, shows how he is already heading towards a formula that worked very well for him three years ago: to instill fear among his electorate and to promote nationalism as the antidote, with a view of achieving his re-election for 2020.

During the past few months, Trump has threatened several times with the closure of the southern border and with the sending of troops to protect the crossing between the two nations. The most recent of these warnings occurred on April 24.

To his usual target of attacks, he recently added countries such as Colombia, Cuba, Venezuela, and those that make up the North Triangle: Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. For all these countries the message is similar: according to Trump, they are not doing enough to compensate for all the help that has been sent from Washington.

“The drug business has grown 50 percent in Colombia since the Colombian president came to power in 2018,”said Trump at the beginning of April. To which he added “I have no doubt that Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Colombia (…) are sending them (the criminals) to the US, because they do not want them in their own countries, and because they think that US people are stupid and are going to receive them.”

About the relationship with Bogotá, the analyst Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a recognized think-tank specialized in hemispheric issues, assures that “as the US presidential campaign accelerates, the links between Colombia and the United States run the risk of “re-narcotizing”, and it could undermine the efforts made during recent years to broaden the bilateral agenda.

Trump’s statement about Colombia was a surprise because of the change of tone in the relationship with the government of President Ivan Duque, who last February was received as guest of honor at the luxurious Blair House, just a few meters away from the White House.

After the meeting, when Duque was asked how he thought Trump rated him from one to ten, he stated very convinced “I think ten.” Of all the leaders of the region, the Colombian leader has been one of the most loyal with Washington, especially as a strategic ally to address the democratic crisis in Venezuela.

For the analyst, Richard Anderson, from the Department of Political Science of the University of California at Los Angeles, interviewed by El Espectador, Duque’s mistake in this relationship has been “to move away from the region to defend the alliance with Trump, in addition to the role that Colombia assumed over the diplomatic blockade of Venezuela, which is led by the United States, and to which a large part of its regional diplomatic capital has been wagered. ”

In that political chess, the current situation in Venezuela, will be used by Trump for his re-election campaign. “To invoke the evil spirit of  “socialism” in Venezuela as a way to attack the Democratic Party because of their proposals on health care and for a New Green Agreement, and it shows how the worst crisis in the hemisphere could be used in the presidential campaign”, explains Shifter.

Meanwhile, the countries of the  North Triangle, Honduras Guatemala and El Salvador, started April with the news that the economic aid given by USA would be eliminated due to their failure in stopping the flow of migrants. Of these three, Guatemala receives the most amount of aid to finance different programs for economic growth, food security and social and economic development.

However, the amount of economic aid is largely exceeded by remittances received by the three countries, and that represent more than 10 percent of their GDP. In 2018, according to Banco de Guatemala, they added the record figure of 9,287 million dollars. While the Central Bank of Honduras reported that the country received during this same year a total of 4,448.8 million dollars for this concept.

“The decision turns US policy in the region upside down. It will not only eliminate humanitarian and development assistance, but it will also stop the joint efforts of the security forces, as well as of the anti-gang units evaluated by the US, which had the support of the Republicans and of Trump’s government until now “. This was stated to The New York Times by Juan S. Gonzalez, former deputy assistant secretary of state during the administration of Barack Obama.

In another unprecedented measure of the recent history between Cuba and the US, Trump decided to eliminate the suspension of Article III of the Helms-Burton Act, which dates back to 1996, under the government of Bill Clinton, which hardens the economic siege by allowing US citizens to claim for their assets on the island that were expropriated during the revolution.

But how much of this speech given by the US president, which is aimed at attracting voters, will weigh for his victory for the November 2020 elections? The attention that his electors can offer to the issue, will be also subject to the fulfillment of his previous promises, among them, the construction of the wall in the border with Mexico, the reduction of criminal activity and of drug traffic.

During a balance carried out in March by the BBC,  it was stated that Trump promised nearly 1,000 miles more of  wall, but since he began his mandate, only some parts of the barrier have been replaced and the construction of more extensions have recently started. By the end of 2018, only 40 miles of the wall were built. By 2019, the expectation is that they will begin replacing around 61 more miles.

Despite these figures, unfavorable to show, it was one of his biggest promises during the campaign, and the approval of the US president has remained stable, mainly among Republicans. According to a Gallup survey carried out at the beginning of April, mentioned by The Boston Globe, 89 percent of Republicans approve the work Trump is doing. As for the independent and democratic groups, he has 39 and 8 percent of approval, respectively.

Another measurement made by the same pollster, reveals that under the current presidency the image of the United States has deteriorated throughout the world. In Latin America, the collapse in favorability has been the most significant: only 16 percent have a positive image of the President, which is even lower in Mexico, having only seven percent.

Apparently, the course of relations between the US and the rest of the countries of the region will continue to be characterized by Trump’s incendiary speech, as well as for the economic and commercial punishments imposed to show results, as the 2020 elections approach. The US approach to Latin America, will have a special emphasis on the electoral debate, because of the attention given by the President, with the objective of mobilizing his voter base.

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