Nicolas Maduro is not fond of competing. When he sees an electoral threat –like a toddler who owns the ball and snatches it when he’s not happy about something– he imposes sanctions or new rules to his adversaries. He can’t let go of the ball of power. He would rather puncture it than risk losing the game.
In this scenario, the opposition has struggled with staying together against this mustache-clad toddler who is almost two meters tall. But last year, it seems that a turning point was finally reached. Maria Corina Machado, conservative leader and one of the fiercest Chavista opponents, had 92% of the votes in the primaries of the Plataforma Unitaria de Venezuela, which clusters the parties in the opposition.
But hope didn’t last long, given the reaction of two state agencies controlled by Chavismo – as all of the State’s branches are. Not only did the National Electoral Council disregard the results, but the Supreme Tribunal confirmed the disqualification of Machado to aspire to public office for 15 years, accusing her of allegedly supporting sanctions against Venezuela and of being part of Juan Guaido’s ‘interim presidency’.
This made it clear that Maduro’s regime didn’t bother throwing down the drain the progress it had made with the United States in the Barbados Agreement, by which the US demanded guarantees for free elections, among other things.
Now, the deadline to register candidates is around the corner: March 25. And the opposition has to agree on a course of action. In the meantime, pro-government forces cling to power, impose a tight electoral calendar to reduce the margin of action of the opposition and hinder the actions of international organizations. For instance, a month ago the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights was expelled from Venezuela.
El próximo 28 de julio, Venezuela celebrará elecciones presidenciales. ¿Está garantizada su transparencia? #OppenheimerPresenta, domingos a las 9 p.m., hora de Miami. @oppenheimera https://t.co/7RyW6dULbZ
— CNN en Español (@CNNEE) March 17, 2024
The explanation is clear, in the words of Eugenio Martínez, Venezuelan journalist expert in elections and director of Votoscopio.com, “the cost of giving up power is very high for Maduro, whereas the cost of remaining in power is very low… Being pragmatic, the Venezuelan government got used to dealing with international sanctions. Common citizens have been more affected by that dynamic.”
But for the opposition, the 92% of the votes obtained by Machado are a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Yet in the face of the ratified disqualification, what is a clear sign of unity toward a sole candidate has become a straightjacket. Indeed, there is no other individual who can replace Machado. Everyone who has tried has been disqualified. Therefore, analysts such as Javier Corrales, professor of political science, suggest that Machado herself should appoint her replacement. “A candidate with such an advantage in the polls would find it difficult to step aside, and some of her followers might find it disappointing to have to vote for someone who is not their first choice,” Corrales writes in the Americas Quarterly magazine.
The academic refers to a historic example in Latin America. In 1973, the Argentinian Military Junta was willing to allow democratic elections to take place, but under the condition that Juan Domingo Peron wouldn’t run. So the general decided to endorse Hector Campora, the campaign’s motto even read “Campora in government, Peron in power.”
They won, indeed, and his replacement lasted only two months in office. He called a new election in which Peron participated, and he won, of course.
What has Maria Corina Machado said? On Sunday 18, at night, she posted a video on social media saying that the regime’s disqualification aims at staging a competition against false candidates of the opposition. “This reaction is a sign of weakness… They have lost their social basis and their blackmailing mechanisms are not working anymore,” she emphasized. “We won’t be kicked off of this electoral race… A hand that has been won is non-negotiable,” she asserted at the end of the video, which has been interpreted as a window to appoint a candidate to replace her.
That hypothesis is circulating in Venezuelans’ conversations, especially considering that Maduro has proven that he is capable of using the institutions to eliminate Machado’s successor from the race, if he feels threatened electorally-wise. Thus, it would be smarter not to reveal the name until the last moment.
In Venezuela there are over 1,400 disqualified individuals, including Freddy Superlano, suspended when votes were being counted in the state of Barinas, where he was likely to be elected governor. And Henrique Capriles, who had 49% of the votes in the 2013 presidential election. In 2017, a year before the new presidential election, he was disqualified for 15 years from public office – just as Maria Corina Machado.
According to Luis Salamanca, PhD in political science, polls show that 80% of the constituency wants a change of regime. “So, in order to tap into that opportunity, the opposition must think of something. Maduro is not a good candidate, he can be defeated, and he is dragging the weight of these terrible years of social, economic and humanitarian crises,” he said to CONNECTAS.
Salamanca doesn’t buy the theory that opposition and citizens will come together around a figure other than Machado. “The candidate of the opposition has a real chance to win, we have the ideal candidate to take the election by storm, but they won’t let her run… Any candidate that supports her would win by a landslide.”
The risk now is for that candidate to register on time. Chavismo has a long story of manipulating elections. In 2015, Mesa de Unidad Democratica managed to get a majority in parliament, yet the regime made it difficult for it, and the Supreme Tribunal finally declared it unconstitutional in 2019. That same year, the opposition made the misstep of declaring Juan Guaido as interim president.
#Entérate Venezolanos en Argentina acuden a la sede de la embajada de Venezuela en ese país para intentar inscribirse o actualizar sus datos en el Registro Electoral, con la intención de poder votar en las elecciones presidenciales del #28Jul pic.twitter.com/5JofsJalOG
— TalCual (@DiarioTalCual) March 18, 2024
On the other hand, many in the opposition still regret not having participated in the last election won by Nicolas Maduro in 2018 with 67.8% of the votes, according to the National Electoral Council. Back then, more than 60 countries didn’t acknowledge the election process as valid. It didn’t make a big difference.
With Chavismo being used to international condemnation and sanctions, the question remains as to which factors could force it to give up power, as other Latin American dictatorships did in the last century. Possibly, the president and his inner circle will seek some type of immunity to accept that scenario. And there are more nuances: Maduro, unlike militaries in the 20th century, feels supported by foreign powers such as Russia and China, which are known for supporting authoritarian regimes worldwide.
The latter makes the outlook more complicated, because, as journalist and electoral analyst
Eugenio Martinez claims, things will only change in Venezuela if national and international actions cause a rupture in the governing coalition, leading to a negotiation process in which “the cost (for Chavismo) of giving up its power decreases significantly, while the cost of remaining in power increases.”