Venezuela, a Political Chess

In a complex play, Washington managed to get Venezuela to commit to having transparent elections in exchange for lifting most economic sanctions. How much is Biden subject to Maduro’s will to deliver his promises, especially following Maria Corina Machado’s victory in the presidential primaries?

Venezuela - Nicolás Maduro - Joe Biden - Elecciones - Sanciones - Estados Unidos - Oposición

By Grisha Vera

“I was given a mandate today. And today, I commit with Venezuelans to enforce that mandate. It includes giving everything I’ve got, everything.” Said Maria Corina Machado this Monday, after the preliminary results of the presidential primary elections were made public. She won with 92% of the votes, and with the participation and endorsement of the widest sector of the Venezuelan opposition.

This election, which the government resisted until the last minute, finally took place soon after a partial agreement was reached between Plataforma Unitaria (in the opposition) and the Executive branch. The primaries also happened after the negotiations between the governments of the United States and Venezuela, by which the former accepted to (partially and with conditions) ease the sanctions on major sectors of the Venezuelan economy – oil, gas and gold. 

The agreements, revealed only a day prior, are the result of years of negotiations. But, why now? “It all comes down to one thing: elections,” says Michael Shifter, senior fellow at Dialogo Interamericano. Two Venezuelan political scientists agree. In 2024, presidential elections will be held in Venezuela and in the United States, and in both nations the electoral game has begun.

President Joe Biden, who is seeking reelection, is attempting to halt irregular immigration of Venezuelans in his country, to recover one of its traditional oil suppliers in the medium-term, and to deal with the pressure of that business sector.

However, Shifter warns that this measure is not entirely positive for Biden: “The fact that they reached an agreement right now, after what is happening in the Middle East and with the perception that Iran is behind it all, could negatively affect Biden. At least, I believe Republicans could use it to develop a narrative about Biden being a weak leader against authoritarian figures in the world, such as Maduro. So, this could be a risk. But I think that it is offset by the effect it might have on the economy; and second, obviously to have Maduro’s collaboration in controlling the migration of Venezuelans towards the United States.” Aside from deportations, the expert adds, by easing the sanctions, Biden is also trying to impact the economic reactivation needed to discourage migrants.

But the American electoral calendar constitutes only one of the factors. For the first time since Maduro rose to power, the presidential election converged with an organized opposition against the maneuvers of Chavismo. This is another factor that has influenced the agreements, according to Shifter.

Experts consulted for this analysis agreed that, beyond electoral analyses, the United States has always been interested in Venezuela’s democratization. And the opportunity just presented itself. “Sanctions are doing what they are supposed to do, in other words, they are putting pressure to try and materialize an agreement with the government to foster a democratic transition,” comments Luis Salamanca, PhD in political sciences and researcher of democratic and undemocratic systems in Venezuela and Latin America.

On the one hand, the opposition is getting ready and is trying to get the government to ensure that the election will be democratic and fair. But on the other hand, the government finally got rid of several sanctions against its oil industry, on which it had blamed the country’s economic and humanitarian crisis since 2019.

At this moment, Maduro seems to be the big winner. “The ball is in the Venezuelan government’s court now. At least from the economic point of view, the excuse of the sanctions doesn’t make much sense anymore. The country is different than it was a few days ago, and it now needs to engage in economic policy,” explains Luis Oliveros, an economist specializing in oil.

This situation is beneficial for the country, but also for Maduro because Chavismo has been known to use the State’s resources to leverage elections and to overtake its rivals. In that respect, political scientist John Magdaleno explains: “Without resources and without stimulating a substantial economic reactivation, Maduro could face a lot of trouble in the presidential election. There is a climate of unrest, exacerbation and frustration swelling in the population, and if the available resources of the State don’t improve, it could risk the durability of the government and not just Maduro’s reelection.”

Nevertheless, the chances of a democratic transition also benefit from Washington’s recent measures, asserts Magdaleno. Indeed, when people don’t have any expectations or are hopeless, they are usually incapable of organizing and solving their problems – including electoral activities.

The Game Begins

What happened this Sunday in Venezuela, albeit desired and expected, shocked the entire world. For many reasons, the country hadn’t had a primary election since 2012, when voters’ turnout was three million. This time around, 2.4 million people participated locally and from abroad, despite obstacles ranging from massive migration, information blockades, disinformation, divided opposition forces, to several candidates’ being disqualified.

The chips are on the board. But the guarantees for democratic and fair elections remain in paper. The winner of the primaries, Maria Corina Machado, is disqualified, and even though it is an illegal measure, Maduro has the power to enforce it. The United States threatens with reconsidering the flexibilization of the sanctions if this matter is not resolved by late November, and if there is no discernible progress made pertaining to imprisoned politicians, The Department of State declared in a press conference last Thursday.

Yet Shifter is skeptical about the United States’ capacity to condition the sanctions. He explains that these operate with very bureaucratic processes that make it difficult to reverse or adjust them depending on the fulfillment of the agreement. “What if Maduro delivers only a small part of the agreement?… It’s okay to say it and to send a message, but in practice, the government of the United States is a monster, and getting to this current point has entailed a lot of work for a long period of time.”

The four experts consulted doubt that Maduro will overturn Machado’s disqualification, since it would imply losing power and that is precisely a luxury he can’t afford. Let us recall that the Department of Justice of the United States has accused him of narco-terrorism, and that, moreover, the International Criminal Court is investigating him for violations to human rights.

Salamanca warns that Maduro doesn’t care about the political cost of his actions. For instance, incurring in new sanctions or in convictions by the international community. “He has a justification that is apart from democracy, the public opinion or citizens’ vote. Why? Because he is getting ready for an election in which citizens are bereft of their expression.  What Maduro truly fears is a military uprising, one never knows what is happening at the core of the Armed Forces.”

Pro-government political forces insist on Machado’s disqualification, and they claim the turnout figures have been manipulated. In the meantime, Spain has suggested the European Union also lift the sanctions on Venezuela. More players join the game.

Machado managed to achieve legitimacy in the primaries, a fact that remained doubtful up to Saturday. But she faces huge challenges – starting with getting her disqualification to be lifted. In the early hours of Monday, her rivals and other opposition leaders acknowledged her victory, but that unity is always unsteady, and can be sabotaged by other parties that are not part of Plataforma Unitaria.

“In the past, Machado has suggested rival strategies regarding the so-called G4 or the current Plataforma Unitaria. But if she wishes to consolidate her strategic position as leader of the opposition, she will obviously have to deal with (at least roughly) some of these factors in anticipation of the presidential election”, Magdaleno adds.

To date, the United States made the first move in this game with the aim of giving a breather to the country, and to give the opposition some chances. Now, Salamanca believes the opposition has to keep up building its own opportunity.

“They have to make an effort to solidify that social and political force to exert pressure, otherwise a short-term transition won’t be feasible. Transitions are the result of mounting pressure on authoritarian regimes, and of some incentives given to factors of power. The aim is to change the calculation of cost and benefits sustained by the political regime,” explains Magdaleno, who has researched democratic transitions worldwide in the last nine years.

The expert argues that 120 cases of successful democratization have occurred in the world from World War II until 2019, according to the database of the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. “The most important variable explaining why successful democratization cases take place is some type of fracture of the dominating coalition. In other words, because within the pro-government forces or the factors of power some decide to challenge the rulers and attempt to oust them, or because a reforming fraction that eventually supports democracy with the dominating coalition is in negotiations with factors of the opposition.”

Machado seems to be clear about it: “Some people believe we have to win an election to achieve governance. I think it’s the other way around. We must set out to begin a governance construction process, prepare the house we plan to move into, so that when we win the election, Venezuela is prepared to begin growing. What I’m referring to is a monumental effort, because we must focus on building a citizen organization as never before in history to make each vote count, but also on erecting the foundation of what the nation will become, rising from the ruins and the tragedy.” Those were her reflections in her first speech as winner of the primaries for the opposition. For now, we can only wait for her next move in this chess that Venezuelan politics has become.

DEJA UNA RESPUESTA

Por favor ingrese su comentario!
Por favor ingrese su nombre aquí